هل مبارك الفرعون الاخير ؟
الاقوال المأثوره لمبارك
المجد للفرعون فى الاعالى و للشعب الهوان
و على مصر الخراب
posted by هايل @ 2:14 PM
7 Comments
**مصر حببتى**
فاما سطور تُضيء الطريق ,, واما رحيل يُريح القلم
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
و على مصر الخراب
7 Comments:
الصحافة الأمريكية: هذه الكلمات
المرعبة «مصر بعد مبارك»
02/01/2009
جمال عصام الدين
بعد زيارة قام بها لمصر مؤخراً كتب الصحفي الأمريكي والأستاذ الزائر بمركز هيوارد بليكر بجامعة تينيس توماس بارنيت تحقيقاً مثيراً عن الأوضاع السياسية في مصر ونشرته صحيفة ستار تربيون التي تصدر في ولاية منيسوتا الأمريكية كذلك علي موقع «نيوز تشيف»، يقول التحقيق: وصل حكم الطوارئ الذي يطبقه رجل مصر القوي حسني مبارك عامه الثلاثين بينما نجله جمال داعية التحديث يتم إعداده باعتباره فرعون مصر المقبل،
وبينما حققت جهود جمال تقدماً في تحقيق انفتاح في اقتصاد مصر المركزي وبصورة سلسة عبر الأعوام القليلة الماضية كذلك حقق الاستبداد والقمع الذي يمارسه والده مبارك الكبير الكثير من التقدم علي كل خصومه السياسيين ونتج عن ذلك أكبر نماذج التنمية في العالم العربي التي تشبه النموذج الصيني.
ولكن مع وصول آثار الركود العالمي الآن لمرحلة عميقة في الأسواق الناشئة بدأت تظهر الشروخ في واجهة نظام مبارك: البطالة حسب الإحصائيات غير الرسمية وصلت إلي حوالي 30% وأكثر، والأسوأ من هذا أن البطالة تتركز في الشباب الذي تزداد أعداده ويتولد سنوياً 800 ألف باحث عن وظيفة، واسألوا الشباب المصري مثلما فعلت أنا أثناء زيارة أخيرة قمت بها لمصر ما هو أكبر قلق ينتابهم حالياً وسوف تكون إجاباتهم هي عجزهم عن إيجاد وظيفة مربحة بدرجة كافية تمكنهم من الزواج وهذا مؤشر مرعب في مجتمع أصبح أكثر تحفظاً من الناحية الدينية.
وقد وصل مبارك «80 عاماً» إلي السلطة وهو يفرض قبضته علي كل أوجه الحياة في مصر تقريباً مما خلق تياراً عارماً وهائلاً من السخط الشعبي، وبينما تركز واشنطن اهتمامها علي كبح جماح إيران في امتلاك الأسلحة النووية وعلي الانتخابات الرئاسية المقبلة فيها أصحبت احتمالات سقوط مصر في أزمة سياسية داخلية من أهم المشاكل التي تنتظر الرئيس المنتخب أوباما.
وما سبق هو جزء من التنبؤات الجزئية التي يتوقعها الصحفي علاء الدين الأعصر في كتابه الجديد «الفرعون الأخير: مبارك والمستقبل غير المؤكد لمصر في شرق أوسط متغير ومرتبك» ويري الأعصر أن صناع السياسة الأمريكان سوف يواجهون قريباً في مصر نفس الخيار الصعب الذي واجهوه من قبل مع شاه إيران: ويطالب الأعصر الساسة الأمريكان ببذل أقصي جهد ممكن أثناء أزمة الخلافة المقبلة وإلا فإن الأمور سوف تنهار.
ومنذ أن اعترفت القاهرة بحق إسرائيل في الوجود في 1979 فإن واشنطن قامت بضخ أكثر من 50 مليار دولار في خزائن النظام أكثر من نصفها عبارة عن مساعدات عسكرية، وبينما تظل إسرائيل معزولة دبلوماسياً واستراتيجياً فإنه يبدو أن أمريكا قد اشترت بهذا المبلغ استقرار مصر ولا شيء أكثر من هذا.
ولكن الآن وبينما الولايات المتحدة تركز علي انتشار الإسلام الراديكالي في مصر بفضل قيادتها العسكرية الجديدة في أفريقيا فإن شبح سقوط مصر في الفوضي أصبح يهدد القرن الأفريقي الملئ بالعنف وأصبح يلوح في الأفق باعتباره من المخاطر القريبة، لماذا؟ لأن مصر مشهورة بتاريخ طويل من التصدير لمتطرفيها مثل المملكة العربية السعودية والإخوان المسلمين مؤسسي القاعدة يشكلون الآن ألد أعداء مبارك غير الحكوميين.
ومثلهم مثل حماس في فلسطين وحزب الله في لبنان فإن الإخوان المسلمين بذلوا جهوداً هائلة في تقديم خدمات اجتماعية لقاعدة من السكان الساخطين الذين يبلغ عددهم حوالي 80 مليون نسمة ويتلقون في العادة أقل القليل من شبكات الأمان من حكومة مهتمة أكثر بفرض حالة من الانضباط السياسي بدلاً من فرض حالة من العدل الاجتماعي.
ومع التدهور الجاري في أفغانستان وباكستان هناك الكثير من القوي العظمي الإقليمية وخارج الإقليم القادرة علي المساعدة في جهود أمريكا لتحقيق الاستقرار، لكن غير واضح ما القوي الكبري التي يمكنها مساعدة أمريكا في تثبيت الوضع في مصر وبمعني إذا فشل جمال مبارك في اختبار الوراثة والخلافة فإن رئيسنا المقبل سوف يواجه في الغالب خيار السماح بظهور ديكتاتورية عسكرية أخري محل مبارك أو يخاطر بسقوط البلد في هوة التطرف.
وكتاب علاء الدين الأعصر ممنوع من البيع في مصر وهو يثير العديد من الأسئلة المقلقة حول السياسة الأمريكية تجاه أكبر دولة عربية، إن تخلي واشنطن عن خيار الديمقراطية في مصر أدي لتوقف الحكومة الفاسدة بدرجة الكبيرة عن اتخاذ أي خطوة نحو الإصلاح السياسي الجاد.
وكل ما يمكنني قوله الآن إنه عندما يقرر الرئيس الأمريكي المنتخب ما هي العاصمة الإسلامية التي سيلقي من خلالها خطابه المنتظر للعالم الإسلامي فإننا يجب أن نتجاهل القاهرة القلقة لأن هذا الخطاب سوف يستثير الكثير من ردود الأفعال التي لا يمكن أن تتحملها إدارته.
http://dostor.org/ar/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11406&Itemid=30
http://dostor.org/ar/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11406&Itemid=30
http://ninjawy.com/showthread.php?t=56086
http://www.thirdpower.org/show_art_main.cfm?id=29076
http://www.aafaq.org/news.aspx?id_news=7831
http://www.swissinfo.ch/ara/front.html?siteSect=107&sid=9641534&cKey=1221557640000&ty=st
http://www.alfikralarabi.org/modules.php?name=News&file=print&sid=3141
http://www.saudiinfocus.com/ar/forum/showthread.php?t=69461
http://www.best-sec.net/vb/archive/index.php/t-1475.html
http://moneep.katib.org/node/568
http://www.horytna.net/Articles/Details.aspx?TID=4&ZID=178&AID=8507
http://www.saveegyptfront.org/news/?c=170&a=16680
http://www.radio6april.com/egyptiansons.php
http://sharkiaonline.com/detail.asp?iData=12258&CATEGORIES_ID=10
http://www.dailynewstribune.com/archive/x1787655665/Barnett-Egypts-frightening-future
Egypt's frightening future
Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak's "emergency rule" is deep into its third decade, with modernizing son Gamal teed up as the pharaoh-in-waiting. While Gamal's efforts to open up Egypt's state-heavy economy have progressed nicely the past few years, so has Mubarak the Elder's repression of all political opponents, yielding the Arab world's most ardent impression of the Chinese model of development.
But with the global recession now reaching down deeply into emerging markets, serious cracks emerge in the Mubarak regime's facade. Unemployment is - unofficially - somewhere north of 30 percent. Worse, it's highly concentrated among youth, whose demographic bulge currently generates 800,000 new jobseekers every year.
Ask young Egyptian men, as I did repeatedly on a trip, what their biggest worry is and they'll tell you it's the inability to find a job that earns enough to enable marriage - a terrible sign in a society becoming more religiously conservative.
At 83, Hosni Mubarak is an unhealthy dictator who's achieved a stranglehold on virtually every aspect of Egyptian life, creating an immense undercurrent of popular resentment. While Washington focuses on Iran's reach for nukes and its upcoming presidential election, Egypt is more likely to be plunged into domestic political crisis on President-elect Obama's watch.
That's the bold prediction offered by journalist Aladdin Elaasar in his new book, "The Last Pharaoh: Mubarak and the Uncertain Future of Egypt in the Volatile Middle East." Elaasar argues that American policymakers could soon face the same tough choice on Egypt that they once suffered with Iran's faltering Shah: step in with maximum effort during a succession crisis or let the chips fall where they may.
Since Cairo recognized Israel's right to exist in 1979, Washington has poured more than $50 billion into the regime's coffers, with more than half coming in military aid. As Israel remains diplomatically isolated and strategically vulnerable in the region, it seems that America has bought Egypt's stability and little else.
But now, as the United States pays more attention to the spread of radical Islam into Africa, thanks to its new military Africa Command, the specter of an unstable Egypt abutting the already highly unstable and violent Horn of Africa (e.g., Sudan, Somalia) looms larger in our near-term worries.
Why? Egypt has a long history of exporting its radicals, much like Saudi Arabia, and the Muslim Brotherhood, forerunner to al Qaeda, stands as Mubarak's strongest non-governmental foe. Like Palestine's Hamas and Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood has made a serious effort at providing baseline social services to a disgruntled population of 80-plus million that typically receives the slimmest of safety nets from a government more interested in political order than social justice.
With the deteriorating Afghanistan/Pakistan situation, there are plenty of interested regional and extra-regional great powers capable of aiding U.S. efforts at stabilization, given the right socialization of the problem by the new Obama administration. But it's unclear which great powers would help out on Egypt, meaning, if Gamal fails the succession test, our incoming president will likely face the choice of allowing a military dictatorship to emerge or risk the country's descent into radicalization.
Banned in Egypt, Elaasar's book raises troubling questions about U.S. policy toward the world's largest Arab state. Washington's soft peddling of democracy hasn't moved the highly corrupt government toward any serious political reform, as the Mubaraks prefer Beijing's blueprint over anything we might offer. And as the regime resorts to stoking anti-Western and anti-Semitic popular sentiment, it gets harder to imagine a path forward for U.S.-Egyptian relations as this global recession advances.
All I can say, Mr. President-Elect, is that when you decide which major Islamic capital will be the venue for your much-anticipated address to the Muslim world, do yourself a favor and pass on restive Cairo, because you just might trigger more response than your administration can afford right now.
Thomas P.M. Barnett (tom@thomaspmbarnett.com) is a visiting scholar at the University of Tennessee's Howard Baker Center.
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view.bg?articleid=1141942
Egypt’s future looks scary
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
Monday, December 29, 2008 -
Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak’s “emergency rule” is deep into its third decade, with modernizing son Gamal teed up as the pharaoh-in-waiting. While Gamal’s efforts to open up Egypt’s state-heavy economy have progressed nicely the past few years, so has Mubarak the Elder’s repression of all political opponents, yielding the Arab world’s most ardent impression of the Chinese model of development.
But with the global recession now reaching down deeply into emerging markets, serious cracks emerge in the Mubarak regime’s facade. Unemployment is - unofficially - somewhere north of 30 percent. Worse, it’s highly concentrated among youth, whose demographic bulge currently generates 800,000 new jobseekers every year.
Ask young Egyptian men, as I did repeatedly on a trip, what their biggest worry is and they’ll tell you it’s the inability to find a job that earns enough to enable marriage - a terrible sign in a society becoming more religiously conservative.
At 83, Hosni Mubarak is an unhealthy dictator who’s achieved a stranglehold on virtually every aspect of Egyptian life, creating an immense undercurrent of popular resentment. While Washington focuses on Iran’s reach for nukes and its upcoming presidential election, Egypt is more likely to be plunged into domestic political crisis on President-elect Barack Obama’s watch.
That’s the bold prediction offered by journalist Aladdin Elaasar in his new book, “The Last Pharaoh: Mubarak and the Uncertain Future of Egypt in the Volatile Middle East.” Elaasar argues that American policymakers could soon face the same tough choice on Egypt that they once suffered with Iran’s faltering Shah: step in with maximum effort during a succession crisis or let the chips fall where they may.
Since Cairo recognized Israel’s right to exist in 1979, Washington has poured more than $50 billion into the regime’s coffers, with more than half coming in military aid. As Israel remains diplomatically isolated and strategically vulnerable in the region, it seems that America has bought Egypt’s stability and little else.
The specter of an unstable Egypt abutting the already highly unstable and violent Horn of Africa (e.g., Sudan, Somalia) looms large in our near-term worries.
Like Palestine’s Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood has made a serious effort at providing social services to a disgruntled population of 80-plus million that receives the slimmest of safety nets from a government more interested in political order than social justice.
It’s unclear which great powers would help out on Egypt, meaning, if Gamal fails the succession test, our incoming president will likely face the choice of allowing a military dictatorship to emerge or risk the country’s descent into radicalization.
Banned in Egypt, Elaasar’s book raises troubling questions about U.S. policy toward the world’s largest Arab state. Washington’s soft peddling of democracy hasn’t moved the highly corrupt government toward any serious political reform, as the Mubaraks prefer Beijing’s blueprint over anything we might offer. And as the regime resorts to stoking anti-Western and anti-Semitic popular sentiment, it gets harder to imagine a path forward for U.S.-Egyptian relations.
All I can say, Mr. President-Elect, is that when you decide which major Islamic capital will be the venue for your much-anticipated address to the Muslim world, do yourself a favor and pass on restive Cairo, because you just might trigger more response than your administration can afford right now.
Talk back at tom@thomaspmbarnett.com.
http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2008/dec/28/four-scary-words-egypt-after-hosni-mubarek/
Barnett: Four scary words: Egypt after Hosni Mubarek
By Thomas P.M. Barnett (Contact)
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarek's "emergency rule" is deep into its third decade, with modernizing son Gamal teed up as the pharaoh-in-waiting. While Gamal's efforts to open up Egypt's state-heavy economy have progressed nicely the past few years, so has Mubarek the Elder's repression of all political opponents, yielding the Arab world's most ardent impression of the Chinese model of development.
But with the global recession now reaching down deeply into emerging markets, serious cracks emerge in the Mubarek regime's facade. Unemployment is - unofficially - somewhere north of 30 percent. Worse, it's highly concentrated among youth, whose demographic bulge currently generates 800,000 new job seekers every year.
Ask young Egyptian men, as I did repeatedly on a trip, what their biggest worry is, and they'll tell you it's the inability to find a job that earns enough to enable marriage - a terrible sign in a society becoming more religiously conservative.
At 83, Hosni Mubarek is an unhealthy dictator who's achieved a stranglehold on virtually every aspect of Egyptian life, creating an immense undercurrent of popular resentment. While Washington focuses on Iran's reach for nukes and its upcoming presidential election, Egypt is more likely to be plunged into domestic political crisis on President-Elect Barack Obama's watch.
That's the bold prediction offered by journalist Aladdin Elaasar in his new book, "The Last Pharaoh: Mubarek and the Uncertain Future of Egypt in the Volatile Middle East." Elaasar argues that American policymakers could soon face the same tough choice on Egypt that they once suffered with Iran's faltering Shah: Step in with maximum effort during a succession crisis or let the chips fall where they may.
Since Cairo recognized Israel's right to exist in 1979, Washington has poured more than $50 billion into the regime's coffers, with more than half coming in military aid. As Israel remains diplomatically isolated and strategically vulnerable in the region, it seems that America has bought Egypt's stability and little else.
But now, as the United States pays more attention to the spread of radical Islam into Africa, thanks to its new military Africa Command, the specter of an unstable Egypt abutting the already highly unstable and violent Horn of Africa (e.g., Sudan, Somalia) looms larger in our near-term worries.
Why?
Egypt has a long history of exporting its radicals, much like Saudi Arabia, and the Muslim Brotherhood, forerunner to al-Qaida, stands as Mubarek's strongest nongovernmental foe. Like Palestine's Hamas and Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood has made a serious effort at providing baseline social services to a disgruntled population of 80-plus million that typically receives the slimmest of safety nets from a government more interested in political order than social justice.
With the deteriorating Afghanistan-Pakistan situation, there are plenty of interested regional and extra-regional great powers capable of aiding U.S. efforts at stabilization, given the right socialization of the problem by the new Obama administration. But it's unclear which great powers would help out on Egypt, meaning, if Gamal fails the succession test, our incoming president will likely face the choice of allowing a military dictatorship to emerge or risk the country's descent into radicalization.
Banned in Egypt, Elaasar's book raises troubling questions about U.S. policy toward the world's largest Arab state. Washington's soft peddling of democracy hasn't moved the highly corrupt government toward any serious political reform, as the Mubareks prefer Beijing's blueprint over anything we might offer. And, as the regime resorts to stoking anti-Western and anti-Semitic popular sentiment, it gets harder to imagine a path forward for U.S.-Egyptian relations as this global recession advances.
All I can say, Mr. President-Elect, is that when you decide which major Islamic capital will be the venue for your much-anticipated address to the Muslim world, do yourself a favor and pass on restive Cairo, because you just might trigger more response than your administration can afford right now.
Thomas P.M. Barnett (tom@thomaspmbarnett.com) is a visiting scholar at the University of Tennessee's Howard Baker Center and author of the forthcoming book "Great Powers: America and the World After Bush."
© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
1 Comment
Posted by SkyWatcher on December 30, 2008 at 4:47 p.m.
[url=http://kaufenviagragenerika50mg.net/]viagra generika[/url] viagra [url=http://achat-viagra-pascher.net/]viagra[/url] commander viagra france [url=http://comprarviagragenerico100mg.net/]generico viagra[/url] viagra precio [url=http://comprareviagragenerico50mg.net/]acquisto viagra[/url] viagra acquisto
just dropping by to say hello
حج مقبول وسعي مشكور، وذنب مغفور. .الحمدلله على سلامتك أخوي اسامة
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home